Weekly Market Technical Analysis Outlook – August 26th to 30th 2013

Weekly Market Technical Analysis Outlook – August 26th to August 30th 2013
EURUSD – Euro/dollar consolidating below key resistance
The EURUSD moved modestly higher on Friday after a pin bar formed on Thursday showing rejection of lower prices. Despite Thursday’s pin bar, the market still needs to overcome key resistance up near 1.3415 to have a chance at extending the recent rally. Unless the market can close decisively above 1.3415 on the daily chart time frame, we will probably see more consolidation this week or perhaps a rotation lower, back down toward support.

GBPUSD – Sterling/dollar rotates down from pin bar at key resistance
The GBPUSD rotated lower last Thursday and Friday from the bearish pin bar reversal setup that we discussed in our August 21st commentary. There’s potential for this market to fall lower still this week, and perhaps re-test key support down around 1.5424. If you zoom out to the weekly chart you can see a bearish pin bar formed on the weekly chart last week, indicating that price could continue falling again this week.

AUDUSD – Aussie/dollar consolidating just below 0.9055
The AUDUSD moved lower again last week and was trading just below 0.9055 resistance late last week. If the market stays contained below that level, we could see it drift lower and re-test key support down near 0.8847 before bouncing higher again. Alternatively, if the market can close back up above 0.9055, we could potentially see it try to push higher again. Overall, this market appears to be a bit choppy right now and we could see some consolidation this week as the market continues to be range-bound between 0.9320 and 0.8847.

GBPJPY – Sterling/yen false-break pin bar at trading range resistance
The GBPJPY has been caught in a trading range between about 154.00 and 147.50 for about 3 months now. On Friday, the market tried to break out of this range but failed, creating a pin bar reversal sell signal and a false break of 154.00 key resistance in the process. This week, if the market continues to stay contained below about 154.10, we could see price rotate lower from Friday’s bearish pin bar. However, if the market does begin moving higher again and closes above 154.10, it would be a bullish sign and could open the door to a larger run higher, but until that happens the trading range is still intact and there’s potential for a rotation lower from Friday’s pin bar.
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